On November 19, 2024, IRCC conducted its latest Express Entry draw for the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), issuing 400 invitations to apply (ITAs) with a minimum Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score of 539. This draw reflects ongoing trends in the CEC category, with shifting ITA numbers and CRS score thresholds offering insights into Canada’s immigration priorities.
When will be the Next CEC Draw?
The Next Express Entry CEC Category draw is predicted to be on November 26, 2024, with the cutoff remaining between 535 to 555 CRS score depending upon number of invitations issued.
Date Prediction: November 26, 2024
Invitations: 400-800
CRS Score: 535 to 555
Recent CEC-Specific Draws: Key Data
| # | Date | Round Type | Invitations Issued | CRS Score of Lowest-Ranked Candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 326 | November 19, 2024 | Canadian Experience Class | 400 | 539 |
| 323 | November 13, 2024 | Canadian Experience Class | 400 | 547 |
| 320 | October 22, 2024 | Canadian Experience Class | 400 | 539 |
| 317 | October 9, 2024 | Canadian Experience Class | 500 | 539 |
| 315 | September 19, 2024 | Canadian Experience Class | 4,000 | 509 |
| 312 | August 27, 2024 | Canadian Experience Class | 3,300 | 507 |
| 309 | August 14, 2024 | Canadian Experience Class | 3,200 | 509 |
| 307 | July 31, 2024 | Canadian Experience Class | 5,000 | 510 |
Analysis of Trends
1. Invitation Issued
The most recent draws (November 19 and November 13) issued only 400 ITAs each, marking a significant drop compared to earlier draws in 2024, which issued thousands of invitations.
For instance, the September 19 draw issued a record-breaking 4,000 ITAs, while July 31 saw 5,000 ITAs.
This reduction in ITAs could reflect a recalibration of immigration targets as the year-end approaches, with the government focusing on specific quotas for skilled workers already in Canada. This would change from the beginning of the year.
2. CRS Score Trends
The CRS cut-off has shown significant variation in recent months. The November 19 and October 22 draws maintained a cut-off of 539, indicating a steady threshold for smaller, competitive draws.
In contrast, larger draws earlier in the year, such as those in August and September, had significantly lower CRS cut-offs (as low as 507), aligning with the larger ITA issuance.
3. Larger to Smaller Size Draws
The recent focus on smaller draws with higher CRS thresholds could signal a strategic shift to their recent immigration policy changes. These smaller draws also suggest that IRCC may be targeting specific economic needs while managing the overall influx of permanent residence applications.
Comparison of Recent Draws:
The November 13 draw had a notable increase in the CRS cut-off (547), higher than the surrounding draws with the same ITA number (400). This suggests fluctuations in candidate pools between consecutive draws.
Will the CRS Score go down in 2025 for the CEC Category?
It is very likely that at the beginning of the year 2025, the CRS score might decrease if Canada holds larger draws, increases immigration targets, or experiences a smaller pool of high-scoring candidates.
However, if competition remains strong and draw sizes stay small aiming less immigration targets, scores could remain high.
What This Means for CEC Candidates
For candidates in the Canadian Experience Class, these trends highlight the need to:
- Focus on CRS Optimization: With higher CRS thresholds, improving language test scores, obtaining additional work experience, or securing a provincial nomination is crucial.
- Monitor Draw Patterns: The shift to smaller draw sizes underscores the importance of staying informed about changes in Express Entry patterns.
- Act Quickly: Tie-breaking rules, such as the one for the November 19 draw (profiles submitted before July 8, 2024), emphasize the benefit of early profile submission.
Conclusion
The November 19 CEC draw shows Canada’s focus on welcoming candidates with Canadian work experience. With fewer invitations and higher CRS scores, the Express Entry system is becoming more competitive.
